SEE spot prices to remain high this week on low wind output - EQ
Date: June 8th 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Southeast European spot power prices are expected to remain high for the rest of this week due to low wind power output, shows Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) data.This week (23) has started with high spot prices in central western Europe (CWE) and southeast Europe (SEE) due to very low wind power output, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, on Tuesday.
The day-ahead baseload power prices on SEE power exchanges for delivery on 9 June ranged between EUR 75.83/MWh in Slovenia and Croatia, and EUR 77.75/MWh in Serbia.
The fuel markets have continued their upward trend during the last week, which has contributed to a bullish SEE power market, added Ellefsen.
“Strong spot levels are expected to continue towards the weekend as the wind power output will remain low,” said Ellefsen.
Average wind generation in Romania is set to fall from 1 GW last week to 0.34 GW this week, before rising to 0.58 GW next week. In Germany, average wind output should fall from 6.1 GW last week to 5.2 GW this week, and then rise to 7.7 GW next week, shows EQ data.
EQ estimates that SEE spot prices will on average mostly exceed EUR 70/MWh this week.
Next week (24), average SEE spot prices are expected to drop to below EUR 69/MWh as the wind power output will normalise across CWE and SEE and nearly 1,300 MW of nuclear and lignite capacity will be back in operation in Romania after the completion of maintenance checks, said Ellefsen.
Other fundamental factors that could impact prices include slightly declining hydropower output as the Danube flow rate is decreasing. “But on the other hand, we foresee very strong reservoir filling in Romania, which will stabilise hydropower generation in the coming weeks,” said Ellefsen.
EQ also sees a downside to the July contracts for SEE in a week’s timeframe, added Ellefsen.