SEE spot power prices set to fall on warmer weather and higher hydro - EQ
Date: April 28th 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Increasing temperatures and higher hydro power output due to melting snow are putting a downward pressure on spot power prices in south east Europe (SEE), according to Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) data.Weekly average spot power prices reached 70.95 EUR/MWh in Slovenia last week. Meanwhile, they amounted to 68.24 EUR/MWh in Hungary, 68.46 EUR/MWh in Romania, and 67.32 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria, according to EQ’s data.
This week (17) the average spot prices in Hungary and Romania are predicted to be EUR 4-5/MWh lower than forecast a week ago, and reach EUR 63.24/MWh and EUR 61.77/MWh, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, late on Tuesday.
“The Hungarian and Romanian power balance has not changed significantly since last week, so most likely the previous forecasted prices were too influenced from the high prices during weeks 15 and 16,” said Ellefsen.
EQ estimates that prices in Slovenia will average EUR 65.65/MWh this week, while in Bulgaria they are expected to average EUR 60.88/MWh.
Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices for delivery on 28 April amounted to EUR 65.13/MWh on the Hungarian HUPX exchange, and to EUR 62.63/MWh on the Romanian Opcom power exchange. The prices reached 64.37 EUR/MWh on the Bulgarian Ibex power exchange, 65.96 EUR/MWh on the Serbian Seepex power exchange, and 70.11 EUR/MWh on the Slovenian BSP power exchange.
For the week ahead (18), EQ expects by up to EUR 1/MWh lower SEE spot power prices compared to the week 17.
“The temperatures are gradually increasing, the hydro power will see more melting from snow, and the Romanian wind power output will be close to normal,” said Ellefsen.
Prices in central western Europe are also expected to fall due to more wind power production and decreased consumption, he added.
The EU emission allowances (EUAs), gas and coal markets have been rather stable since last week, said Ellefsen.
The SEE power contracts for May have also been relatively neutral “despite the strong spot prices lately,” he said, adding that EQ recommends a “neutral trading position” for the May contracts at the moment.