Normal wind output to recouple Romanian and Hungarian spot markets - EQ
Date: May 18th 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
The return of wind power output to normal levels in Romania is expected to result in its spot power market being recoupled with Hungary’s towards the weekend, shows Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) data.The Hungarian and Romanian spot markets have been decoupled since the start of the week due to strong hydro and wind power production in Romania.
The difference in day-ahead baseload power prices in these two countries for delivery on 18 May reached EUR 16.33/MWh, falling to EUR 7.49/MWh for delivery on 19 May.
The Hungarian spot market, where the day-ahead prices for delivery on 19 May amounted to EUR 77.47/MWh, has been “coupled to the higher priced Austrian/CWE markets as the Hungarian nuclear plant Paks 1 (480 MW) has been out for maintenance,” said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, on Tuesday.
EQ estimates that in southeast Europe (SEE) spot power prices this week (20) will average between EUR 61.69/MWh in Romania and EUR 67.04/MWh in Hungary.
“The average Romanian spot prices for week 20 are estimated to come out close to the forecast from last week,” said Ellefsen.
The day-ahead baseload power prices for delivery on 19 May amounted to EUR 76.24/MWh on the Bulgarian Ibex power exchange, EUR 74.11/MWh on the Serbian Seepex power exchange, and EUR 77.12/MWh on the Slovenian BSP power exchange.
High June contracts
In the week ahead (21), EQ expects available that nuclear capacity in Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary will increase by about 1.2 GW. This will limit any further increases in regional spot prices due to the impact of short-run marginal costs and fuel price levels, said Ellefsen.
However, the bullishness seen last week on EU emission allowances (EUAs), as well as in gas and coal markets, has “relaxed” this week, said Ellefsen. EUA prices, which rose above EUR 56/t for the first time on Friday, fell to EUR 53.12/t on Tuesday.
The SEE power contracts for June, which followed fuel prices last week, have been trading “well above the spot and week-ahead outlooks,” said Ellefsen, adding that these prices are now expected to fall over the coming week. EQ’s data shows that the Hungarian and Romanian power contracts for June are expected to average EUR 71.33/MWh and EUR 71.18/MWh this week.
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