Hungary-Austria power spread estimated at EUR 8-9/MWh next week – EQ
Date: July 20th 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Spot power prices are expected to remain strong in both central west and southeast Europe next week, with Hungarian prices trading at a premium of around EUR 8-9/MWh to Austria, said Montel’s Energy Quantified.Hungarian and Romanian spot power prices are this week back at the levels seen two weeks ago, mainly due to the combination of below normal wind power output in Germany and above normal wind output in Romania, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, on Tuesday. EQ estimates that this week’s average wind generation in Romania will be 0.72 GW, up from the normal average of 0.6 GW.
The day-ahead baseload prices for delivery on 21 July amounted to EUR 92.35/MWh on the Hungarian HUPX exchange, while on the Romanian Opcom exchange they amounted to EUR 91.86/MWh. Prices exceeded EUR 100/MWh for delivery on 20 July, as was the case on the Slovenian, Croatian and Serbian power exchanges.
Hydropower levels in southeast Europe are currently slightly higher than normal. This week’s combined average hydropower generation in Romania and Serbia is expected to amount to 3.3 GW. However, this will only have “a moderate effect on changes in the levels of the spot market,” said Ellefsen.
European gas prices fell to levels below EUR 35/MWh on Tuesday, while carbon prices fell below EUR 51/t. However, fuel prices are unlikely to have an effect on regional spot prices over the coming week, said Ellefsen.
“Thermal production will remain fairly flat over the coming week, although we anticipate some more lignite will come back online in Romania and Bulgaria,” he added.
EQ expects that southeast European spot power prices will average between EUR 91.8/MWh in Hungary and EUR 94.76/MWh in Bulgaria for the whole of this week.
Prices are expected to remain strong in both central west and southeast Europe next week, though there will be an average difference of about EUR 8-9/MWh between prices in Austria and Hungary, with the latter being at the higher level.
EQ’s spot price forecast for next week shows that, compared to this week, average prices will increase the most in Romania – by almost EUR 3/MWh, while they will increase by under EUR 1/MWh in other regional markets.
“In general, our price forecast for Romania and Hungary is quite close to the latest traded week-ahead prices,” added Ellefsen.
16.07.2021 - Romanian power prices for 2022 exceed EU 80/MWh