Hungarian and Slovenian spot to slide on stronger wind – EQ
Date: January 18th 2022
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Hungarian and Slovenian spot power prices could see a roughly EUR 8-9/MWh fall this week amid stronger wind output in Germany, Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) data shows.Hungarian baseload spot prices for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday settled at EUR 211.29/MWh, EUR 237.50/MWh and EUR 227.17/MWh, while the Slovenian baseload for the first three days of this week traded at EUR 209.09/MWh, EUR 238.96/MWh and EUR 233.4/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, spot prices for Monday and Tuesday were under EUR 200/MWh in Bulgaria and Romania, but grew to EUR 215.30/MWh for Wednesday delivery.
The Hungarian contract for the current week closed at EUR 198.99/MWh on the EEX exchange, but analysts from EQ forecast higher average spot prices for this week, at EUR 219.59/MWh. Their outlook for last week was EUR 4.46 below the actual spot average.
Slovenian spot prices should be only slightly higher than Hungary’s this week and about EUR 8/MWh lower than last week, while Bulgaria and Romania should see prices closer to EUR 200-204/MWh, said EQ.
“In general market conditions have continued their bearish trend since last week,” said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, on Tuesday. He added that the Hungarian month-ahead contract has declined by about EUR 40/MWh since the start of last week. It last traded at around EUR 214.25/MWh on EEX.
Falling power output
Looking at fundamentals, combined power demand in Romania and Serbia, two of the largest markets in south-east Europe, could average 12.8 GW/day this week, only slightly up from last week, while temperatures in Romania are expected to drop to -2.4C, or 0.4C below last week's average.
Meanwhile, the Romanian wind supply should fall to 1.46 GW/day this week from 1.86 GW/day reported last week, EQ data showed. Combined hydropower output in Romania and Serbia should also fall, from 3.3 GW/day to 2.4 GW/day.
Ellefsen added that the gas-fired short run marginal costs have declined by about EUR 15/MWh since last week, “so the risk premium in the forward market has been strongly reduced.”
Slovenian and Hungarian spot prices could see some further decreases next week, while Romanian and Bulgarian prices are expected to increase by EUR 10-12/MWh on the back of lower power output and colder weather, added EQ.
Hungarian power contracts for the fourth week of January 2022 last traded at EUR 225/MWh on the EEX exchange.
This article is available also in Slovene.
11.01.2022 - Strong wind set to pressure SEE spot prices – EQ