EQ Reduces SEE Spot Power Price Estimate For This Week By 4 EUR/MWh
Date: February 3rd 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) has reduced its estimates for the spot power prices in South East Europe (SEE) for the current week (5) by nearly 4 EUR/MWh to an average of between 47.94 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and an average of 49.56 EUR/MWh in Slovenia, “as temperatures are higher, hydropower output is strong and the spot prices in Central West Europe (CWE) are moderate,” said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, on Tuesday.“Last week (4) average spot power prices in the SEE area were slightly lower than forecasted by midweek, as the growth in temperatures was higher than expected towards the weekend,” explained Ellefsen.
Weekly average spot power prices amounted to 55.16 EUR/MWh in Slovenia last week, while in Hungary they amounted to 53.92 EUR/MWh, in Romania they amounted to 53.18 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria to 51.58 EUR/MWh, according to EQ’s data.
For the current week (5), EQ has lowered its spot prices estimates in the SEE area by nearly 4 EUR/MWh on account of higher temperatures and strong hydro.
Last Tuesday EQ estimated that prices will average between 53.23 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and 53.98 EUR/MWh in both Slovenia and Hungary in week 5, whereas this Tuesday EQ estimated that prices will average between 47.94 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and 49.56 EUR/MWh in Slovenia this week (5).
Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX and the Romanian OPCOM power exchanges for delivery on 3 February amounted to 47.45 EUR/MWh. Prices on the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange amounted to 46.21 EUR/MWh, on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 45.32 EUR/MWh, while on the Slovenian BSP power exchange they reached 44.23 EUR/MWh.
“For the week ahead (6), we estimate that the spot price for Hungary/Romania will be in a range of 49-50 EUR/MWh,” said Ellefsen.
EQ foresees a rather strong wind power output in Romania in week 6, as well as strong hydropower production and fairly unchanged consumption. “The SEE production capacity will be fairly unchanged too,” noted Ellefsen.
Ellefsen added that the EU emission allowances (EUAs) market was very bullish on Tuesday (34.95 EUR/t), while the coal and gas markets have been bullish since last week.
“The month-ahead contracts in the power market have been bearish too. We will recommend a neutral position on the month-ahead contracts in a week’s horizon until we see a clearer development on the EUA market,” concluded Ellefsen.