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EQ: Record Hydro Output Pushed Down SEE Spot Prices By 5-8 EUR/MWh

EQ: Record Hydro Output Pushed Down SEE Spot Prices By 5-8 EUR/MWh

Date: March 2nd 2021

Author: Tanja Srnovršnik

Category: Trading

Topic: Electricity

The exceptionally high hydropower production in South East Europe (SEE) over the first seven weeks of the year has likely lowered the Romanian spot price by 5-8 EUR/MWh compared to the seasonal norm, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday.

According to Ellefsen, precipitation across SEE in the first seven weeks of this year “was the highest on record, thus pushing hydropower production to record highs of nearly twice the level of 2019 and 2020.”

Thus, the 2021 precipitation level to date is 4.7 TWh, which is 42% higher than the previous maximum level for the past 40 years, and 9.3 TWh (142%) higher than the long-term normal.

However, precipitation has not been equally distributed across the region, noted Ellefsen.

Precipitation levels in Romania and Serbia were 90% above normal, while in Greece they were 150% higher, he wrote in the latest EQ blog post.

“The production level at the end of week 7 was about 170%, which equates to about 4,000 MW, above normal. For weeks 1-7, the average production was about 155% of the normal amount, compared to 80% of the normal amount for the same period last year,” said Ellefsen.

Increased hydropower production “also meant the price spread between the SEE region and Austria and Italy was reversed, with lower prices in the SEE region,” mentioned Ellefsen.

EQ also estimates “that high hydropower production has lowered SEE prices so far this year by about 5-8 EUR/MWh compared to normal,” he added.

The whole blog post with graphics can be read HERE.



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