EQ Foresees Strong SEE Spot Prices Due to Very Low Wind Output in Romania
Date: December 16th 2020
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Spot power price levels are expected to be strong this week in South East Europe (SEE) from Wednesday until Friday due to very low wind power production in Romania, while German wind power production has normalised, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday. The day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX and Romanian OPCOM power exchanges for delivery on 16 December amounted to 92.85 EUR/MWh.“Last week (50) spot power prices in the SEE area were rather strong, to a large extent determined by the strong AT/DE market due to low wind power production in Germany,” explained Ellefsen.
Weekly average spot power prices in Slovenia amounted to 58.60 EUR/MWh last week, while in Hungary they amounted to 62.96 EUR/MWh, in Romania they amounted to 63.67 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria to 61.70 EUR/MWh, according to EQ data.
EQ expects strong spot price levels in SEE from Wednesday until Friday this week – prices are expected to average between 55.88 EUR/MWh in Slovenia and 64.10 EUR/MWh in Hungary.
Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX and Romanian OPCOM power exchanges for delivery on 16 December amounted to 92.85 EUR/MWh. On the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange they amounted to 80.80 EUR/MWh, on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 83.75 EUR/MWh, and on the Slovenian BSP power exchange to 65.21 EUR/MWh.
For next week (52), EQ expects that wind power production in Romania will remain moderate, while consumption will gradually decrease towards Christmas Day, said Ellefsen.
“Temperatures in SEE will decrease somewhat next week, but will stay 1-2 degrees above normal,” mentioned Ellefsen.
Ellefsen further noted that “the low SEE precipitation level this week will reduce the hydropower outlook towards Christmas Day.”
Ellefsen added that the fuel and the associated short-run marginal costs (SRMCs) “were very bullish last week. The supply is tighter both on the CO2 and gas markets, and market prices have been at the highest level so far this year.” EQ thus recommends “a continued and careful bullish view in a week’s horizon.”