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EQ Forecasts 5 EUR/MWh Drop in SEE Spot Power Prices Next Week

EQ Forecasts 5 EUR/MWh Drop in SEE Spot Power Prices Next Week

Date: March 23rd 2021

Author: Tanja Srnovršnik

Category: Trading

Topic: Electricity

The return of “nearly normal” temperatures will be one of the factors pushing down spot power prices in South East Europe (SEE) next week, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday.

EQ graf“The SEE spot power prices last week (11) were nearly at the level forecasted. Moderate wind power output in Germany strongly reduced the difference between Austrian and German prices, and the SEE prices were at a level close to those of Austria,” explained Ellefsen.

Weekly average spot power prices amounted to 55.82 EUR/MWh in Slovenia last week, while in Hungary they amounted to 55.42 EUR/MWh, in Romania they amounted to 54.43 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria to 54.21 EUR/MWh, according to EQ’s data.

EQ expects “fairly stable conditions” this week compared to last week, said Ellefsen, noting that temperatures in SEE are still significantly lower than normal while hydro power and wind power outputs remain unchanged.

EQ estimates that prices will average between 54.60 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and 55.89 EUR/MWh in Slovenia this week (12).

Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX power exchange amounted to 61.33 EUR/MWh for delivery on 24 March, while on the Romanian OPCOM power exchange they amounted to 61.27 EUR/MWh. The prices on the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange amounted to 64.23 EUR/MWh, on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 61.58 EUR/MWh, while on the Slovenian BSP power exchange they reached 59.71 EUR/MWh.

For the week ahead (13), EQ forecasts that temperatures will nearly normalise, while the impact from the Easter holidays will be limited, said Ellefsen.

“As Q2 approaches we estimate that production capacities will be somewhat reduced, probably due to the start of the maintenance season,” noted Ellefsen, adding that the SEE spot prices are forecast to decline by 5 EUR/MWh from this week’s average.

Ellefsen added that the level of the EU emission allowances (EUAs) market has remained relatively stable since last week, while the gas and coal markets were slightly higher at the start of this week.

“The SEE power contracts for April and the short-run marginal costs (SRMCs) have been fairly stable of late, and the month-ahead prices have recently been well in line with the spot forecasts from EQ for the first weeks of April,” concluded Ellefsen.



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