EQ Expects Strong SEE Spot Prices to Continue This Week, Increasing Hydro Next Week
Date: December 9th 2020
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Spot power price levels are expected to remain strong this week in South East Europe (SEE) due to varying wind and temperature conditions, supported by strong spot prices in Austria and Germany, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday. EQ forecasts increasing hydropower production in SEE next week.“Last week (49) spot power prices in the SEE area were very strong, as Romanian wind power production was very low on certain days and the consumption in Serbia and Romania combined was 1,000 MW higher than normal due to low temperatures,” explained Ellefsen.
As Energetika.NET reported last week, day-ahead baseload power prices on the Bulgarian IBEX and Romanian OPCOM power exchanges exceeded 80 EUR/MWh for the delivery day of 3 December, reaching 82.82 EUR/MWh and 83.16 EUR/MWh respectively. Furthermore, the Bulgarian power price for delivery on 2 December reached 93.86 EUR/MWh (MORE).
Weekly average spot power prices in Slovenia amounted to 58.85 EUR/MWh last week, while in Hungary they amounted to 61.84 EUR/MWh, in Romania they amounted to 59.3 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria to 64.48 EUR/MWh, according to EQ data.
EQ expects the continuation of strong spot price levels in SEE this week – prices are expected to average between 58.99 EUR/MWh in Slovenia and 60.76 EUR/MWh in Hungary.
The day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX power exchange for delivery on 9 December amounted to 80.63 EUR/MWh, while on the Romanian OPCOM power exchange they amounted to 82.48 EUR/MWh. Meanwhile, on the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange they amounted to 76 EUR/MWh, on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 79.72 EUR/MWh, and on the Slovenian BSP power exchange to 75.29 EUR/MWh.
For the next week (51), EQ forecasts declining spot power price levels “as we do not anticipate such extreme strong levels as on single day this week, and the AT/DE spot price will be lower,” said Ellefsen.
After a very dry spell, EQ data shows very strong precipitation in SEE this week. EQ is also forecasting increasing hydropower production next week, noted Ellefsen.
Ellefsen added that the month-ahead power prices for January 2021 for the SEE market have started on the bearish side this week. EQ’s expectations in this regard “are rather neutral for the full week horizon,” said Ellefsen.