EQ: Significant Drop in SEE Spot Prices Expected This Week
Date: January 20th 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
The weather will have a bearish impact towards the coming weekend, causing spot power prices in South East Europe (SEE) to fall significantly during this week, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday.“Last week (2) spot power prices in the SEE area were slightly higher than the Austrian price, as electricity consumption in SEE increased and wind output in Romania decreased from mid-week,” explained Ellefsen.
Weekly average spot power prices amounted to 64.29 EUR/MWh in Slovenia last week, while in Hungary they amounted to 62.02 EUR/MWh, in Romania they amounted to 62.01 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria to 58.16 EUR/MWh, according to EQ’s data.
“The weather pattern continued until Tuesday this week (3), and the weather will have a bearish impact towards the coming weekend. Thus, spot prices will drop significantly during week 3,” noted Ellefsen.
Prices are expected to average between 57.50 EUR/MWh in Romania and 58.61 EUR/MWh in Slovenia this week.
Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX power exchange, as well as on the Romanian OPCOM exchange, for delivery on 20 January amounted to 62.40 EUR/MWh. Prices on the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange amounted to 65.58 EUR/MWh, on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 59.86 EUR/MWh, while on the Slovenian BSP power exchange they reached 62.56 EUR/MWh.
“For the week ahead (4), we see increasing wind and hydropower production levels and we forecast workday baseload prices close to 60 EUR/MWh,” said Ellefsen.
EQ expects that spot prices for week 4 will be higher than those traded at the start of this week, noted Ellefsen.
Ellefsen added that the movements in the fuel markets and the associated short-run marginal costs (SRMCs) have been “slightly bearish since the start of last week.”
“The February contracts in the SEE area have been extremely bearish since the start of last week, and the prices are currently close to the forecasted spot levels for the end of January/start of February. Our short-term view is neutral for the further movements for the February 2021 contracts,” concluded Ellefsen.