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EQ: After This Week’s Fall, SEE Spot Prices to Rise 2-3 EUR/MWh Next Week

EQ: After This Week’s Fall, SEE Spot Prices to Rise 2-3 EUR/MWh Next Week

Date: February 24th 2021

Author: Tanja Srnovršnik

Category: Trading

Topic: Electricity

Spot power prices in South East Europe (SEE) are set to fall by about 4 EUR/MWh this week due to rising temperatures, and then rise by 2-3 EUR/MWh next week, following movements of the Austrian/German prices, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday.

EQ graf“Last week (7) the SEE spot power prices were nearly 2 EUR/MWh lower than forecasted by mid-week, partly because of rather low weekend prices,” explained Ellefsen.

Weekly average spot power prices amounted to 49.65 EUR/MWh in Slovenia last week, while in Hungary they amounted to 50.84 EUR/MWh, in Romania they amounted to 50.61 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria to 50.74 EUR/MWh, according to EQ’s data.

“This week we forecast rising temperatures, slowly declining hydropower, low wind power output in SEE, and spot prices about 4 EUR/MWh lower than the previous week,” noted Ellefsen.

EQ estimates that prices will average between 45.84 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and 46.75 EUR/MWh in Slovenia this week (8).

Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX power exchange amounted to 46.62 EUR/MWh for delivery on 24 February, while on the Romanian OPCOM power exchange it amounted to 46.87 EUR/MWh. Prices on the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange amounted to 44.54 EUR/MWh, on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 43.63 EUR/MWh, while on the Slovenian BSP power exchange they reached 50.15 EUR/MWh.

For the week ahead (9), EQ forecasts that SEE spot prices will increase by 2-3 EUR/MWh “despite normalising wind power output in SEE, but we expect that the AT/DE prices will increase due to low German wind power output,” said Ellefsen.

“Thus, we believe there will be a fairly small price difference between the SEE and the CWE/AT markets. In addition, we anticipate consumption will rise slowly while hydropower will slowly decrease next week,” noted Ellefsen.

Ellefsen added that the EU emission allowances (EUAs) market has been bearish lately, which is also the case for both the coal and gas markets.

“The month-ahead contracts in the power market have followed the fuel markets in a bearish direction, but seem to be fundamentally justified based on the spot price forecast and the week-ahead prices. Our short-term recommendation for the month-ahead contracts will remain neutral,” concluded Ellefsen.



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