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EU set for 30% wind capacity shortfall amid challenges – IEA

EU set for 30% wind capacity shortfall amid challenges – IEA

Date: October 9th 2024

Author: Kelly Paul, Montel

Category: En.vision

Topic: Electricity , Renewables , Ecology

The EU will have almost 370 GW of total installed wind capacity by the end of the decade, a 28% shortfall on its 2030 target amid permitting challenges and grid congestion, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

Under the IEA’s main case scenario, onshore wind capacity would reach 310 GW, falling short of a target of 400 GW, while offshore wind would reach 60 GW, just over half of the 2030 target of 111 GW, the IEA added in its annual Renewables report for 2024.

Many countries had complex processes in place for obtaining permits for onshore and offshore wind projects, compounded by public opposition and grid congestion impeding deployment, the report said.

“This has prevented developers from participating in auctions, led to project cancellations and delayed construction and commissioning,” it said.

As a result, total renewable capacity is forecast at 1,105 GW by 2030, falling 11% short of the 1,236 GW target envisaged in the RePowerEU plan, the IEA said.

Solar boom

Yet a boom in solar deployment would help to drive renewable capacity additions in the EU through to the end of the decade, the report said.

Some 478 GW of solar capacity is set to come online between now and 2030, more than three times the amount of onshore wind and eight times more than offshore wind, the IEA estimates.

The majority of new capacity additions would be concentrated in countries such as Germany, the UK, Italy and Turkey.

In the IEA’s accelerated case scenario, total renewable capacity in the EU reaches 1,265 GW by 2030, slightly surpassing the EU target thanks to solar exceeding forecasts even as wind falls short.

“This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

“Between now and 2030, the world is on course to add more than 5,500 GW of renewable power capacity – roughly equal the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the United States combined. By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand.”


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