EQ: SEE Spot Prices Set to Rise This and Decrease Somewhat Next Week
Date: November 24th 2020
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Spot power prices in South East Europe (SEE) are expected to increase this week to average levels of around 50 EUR/MWh due to decreasing hydropower production, decreasing temperatures and strong Austrian spot prices due to low German wind power production, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).The day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX power exchange for delivery on 24 November amounted to 55.24 EUR/MWh, while on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 56.47 EUR/MWh, and on the Slovenian BSP power exchange to 53.29 EUR/MWh.
EQ expects the spot prices in SEE “to decrease somewhat next week” due to increasing wind power output and somewhat milder temperatures,” said Ellefsen.
“Hydropower is expected to stay unchanged and lower than normal,” he added.
By the end of November, traders from Slovenian Petrol expect “regional prices to continue to rise and move around Italian electricity prices (45-55 EUR/MWh).”
Last week (47) spot power prices in SEE were about 0.5-1.0 EUR/MWh higher than the EQ forecasts, noted Ellefsen.
Ellefsen added that the fuels and the associated short-run marginal costs (SRMCs) “are currently neutral. The month-ahead prices for December 2020 for the SEE market were slightly bullish last week. Our view is rather neutral in a week's horizon.”