EQ: Romanian and Hungarian Spot Power Prices To Fall 3-4 EUR/MWh Next Week
Date: March 2nd 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Very strong wind power production in Germany and close to normal wind power production in Romania are set to push down spot power prices in Austria and South East Europe (SEE), said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday.“Last week (8) the SEE spot power prices were nearly at the level forecasted by mid-week. The temperatures rose, but moderate wind power production both in SEE and the CWE area supported the spot prices,” explained Ellefsen.
Weekly average spot power prices amounted to 47.33 EUR/MWh in Slovenia last week, while in Hungary they amounted to 46.77 EUR/MWh, in Romania they amounted to 47.04 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria to 44.72 EUR/MWh, according to EQ’s data.
“This week the SEE spot prices are expected to remain fairly unchanged compared to the previous week, while weak German wind power production will support the spot prices across most of Europe” noted Ellefsen.
EQ estimates that prices will average between 44.35 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and 47.90 EUR/MWh in Slovenia this week (9).
Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX power exchange amounted to 52.60 EUR/MWh for delivery on 3 March, while on the Romanian OPCOM power exchange they amounted to 51.16 EUR/MWh. The prices on the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange amounted to 40.34 EUR/MWh, on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 52.59 EUR/MWh, while on the Slovenian BSP power exchange they reached 58.04 EUR/MWh.
For the week ahead (10), EQ forecasts that German wind power production will be very strong, while wind power production in SEE (Romania) will be close to normal, said Ellefsen.
“This means falling spot prices in both the Austrian and SEE markets as well,” noted Ellefsen, adding that the Romanian and Hungarian spot prices are forecast to decline by 3-4 EUR/MWh from this week’s average.
Ellefsen added that the EU emission allowances (EUAs) and fuel markets have been neutral to slightly bearish lately, thus not providing a clear direction for power contracts.
“The SEE power contracts for April are currently trading somewhat higher than the spot market outlooks for the closest weeks, so we foresee a limited downside on the month-ahead contracts over a week’s horizon,” concluded Ellefsen.