Low wind output to affect SEE spot prices next week – EQ
Date: June 15th 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
A fall in Romanian wind power output is expected to push southeast European (SEE) spot power prices above those in Austria and Germany again next week, shows Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) data.High temperatures, high fuel prices and low wind output pushed the German day-ahead baseload power price for delivery on 16 June to EUR 85/MWh. Austrian prices also exceeded EUR 85/MWh, shows Epex Spot’s data.
“Strong prices in central western Europe have also been influencing the SEE market this week, but strong wind power output in Romania towards the weekend will have a bearish effect on the Romanian market compared to the Hungarian one,” said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, on Tuesday.
EQ thus expects that Hungarian spot prices will average EUR 72.14/MWh this week, while Romanian prices will reach EUR 68.91/MWh.
Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices for delivery on 16 June amounted to EUR 82.52/MWh on the Hungarian HUPX exchange, and to EUR 78.79/MWh on the Romanian Opcom power exchange. The prices reached EUR 81.10/MWh on the Bulgarian Ibex power exchange, EUR 81.44/MWh on the Serbian Seepex power exchange, and EUR 85.11/MWh on the Slovenian BSP power exchange.
Growing prices on the fuel markets have also contributed to “a continued bullish SEE power market,” said Ellefsen. Temperatures have also been increasing in the SEE region.
However, the heatwave in central and western Europe will end towards the weekend, said Ellefsen. Meanwhile, the Slovenian environmental agency’s forecast shows temperatures in Slovenia are expected to remain at about 29-30°C until next Thursday.
Average wind generation in Romania is set to fall from 1 GW this week to 0.33 GW next week, which should push SEE power prices slightly higher than those in Germany and Austria, said Ellefsen.
EQ estimates that SEE spot prices will average between EUR 72.53/MWh in Bulgaria and EUR 72.73/MWh in Slovenia and Hungary next week.
EQ also forecasts a downside to the July contracts for SEE over a one-week horizon, added Ellefsen.