Low wind output pushes SEE spot prices to EUR 100/MWh - EQ
Date: June 22nd 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Low wind power output across most European markets pushed the Romanian and Hungarian day-ahead power prices for delivery on 23 July to EUR 102.02/MWh, shows Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) data.This is the highest day-ahead baseload price seen so far this year on these two markets, and also well above the EUR 92.36/MWh achieved in the Austrian power market.
Day-ahead power prices for delivery on 23 July were also high on other southeast European (SEE) power markets, reaching EUR 101.77/MWh on the Slovenian BSP power exchange, EUR 99.28/MWh on the Bulgarian Ibex exchange, and EUR 98.82/MWh on Serbian Seepex.
These bullish prices are the result of wind power output in both central western Europe (CWE) and SEE falling to about 30% of the normal level, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at EQ, on Tuesday.
This week’s average wind generation in Romania is estimated at only 0.17 GW, down from the 0.92 GW achieved last week and from the normal average of 0.6 GW. In Germany, average wind generation is forecast at 6.2 GW this week, down from the normal of 11.3 GW, shows EQ data.
For the whole of this week, EQ expects that SEE power prices will average between EUR 82.52/MWh in Romania and EUR 84.33/MWh in Slovenia.
Wind levels are expected to remain “moderate” across both SEE and CWE next week. Romanian wind power generation is expected to average 0.38 GW, while Germany wind generation is forecast at 6.4 GW, according to EQ.
Hydropower output in SEE is set to remain strong next week as the Romanian hydro reservoirs are at 95-97% full, which is “probably an all-time high”, said Ellefsen.
Additionally, more Romanian lignite capacity will be available next week after the end of maintenance, said Ellefsen, adding that temperatures in SEE will be close to normal.
EQ’s spot price forecast for next week shows that average prices in SEE will be EUR 2-3/MWh lower than this week. Regional prices are also expected to be EUR 3/MWh higher compared to those in Austria and CWE.
“The traded week-ahead prices for SEE seem to be all too high, partly due to a strong influence from this week’s extreme prices,” added Ellefsen.