EQ: SEE Spot Prices to Mostly Exceed 60 EUR/MWh Next Week
Date: April 13th 2021
Author: Tanja Srnovršnik
Weekly spot power prices in South East Europe (SEE) are set to average between 59.42 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and 63.31 EUR/MWh in Slovenia next week (16), said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ), on Tuesday.“The SEE spot power prices for week 14 were nearly 6 EUR/MWh higher than forecast, most likely due to the outage of the Slovenian nuclear plant, very low wind power output in SEE and the increased Austrian spot price,” mentioned Ellefsen.
Weekly average spot power prices reached 58.39 EUR/MWh in Slovenia last week. Meanwhile, they amounted to 55.89 EUR/MWh in Hungary, 55.99 EUR/MWh in Romania, and 55.80 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria, according to EQ’s data.
“For the current week, the spot prices have been very high until Wednesday 14 April, and we believe the levels will decrease towards the weekend as SEE wind power and hydro power output increases,” noted Ellefsen.
“On the other hand, the Austrian spot price will remain high, as CWE wind power output will be low,” added Ellefsen.
EQ estimates that prices this week (15) will average between 60.64 EUR/MWh in Bulgaria and 67.92 EUR/MWh in Slovenia.
Meanwhile, the day-ahead baseload power prices for delivery on 14 April amounted to 75.92 EUR/MWh on the Hungarian HUPX and Romanian OPCOM power exchanges. The prices reached 69.44 EUR/MWh on the Bulgarian IBEX power exchange, 75.02 EUR/MWh on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange, and 76.58 EUR/MWh on the Slovenian BSP power exchange.
For the week ahead (16), EQ expects slightly increasing temperatures in SEE, albeit still below the seasonal average.
“The SEE wind power output will be moderate next week, consumption nearly unchanged, while it is estimated that hydro power output will increase further,” said Ellefsen,.
“Out spot price forecasts for the week ahead are about 1-2 EUR/MWh higher than the latest market prices,” noted Ellefsen.
Ellefsen added that the EU emission allowances (EUAs) market was bullish after Easter, but now seems to have calmed down.
The gas market has been bullish during the last few weeks due to a cold spell across Europe, while the coal market was slightly bearish after Easter, said Ellefsen.
“The SEE power contracts for May have been bullish lately due to strong spot prices. We believe these contracts will remain stable until next week,” concluded Ellefsen.