EQ: SEE Spot Markets Could Face Several Bearish Factors Until End of N

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EQ: SEE Spot Markets Could Face Several Bearish Factors Until End of Next Week

Date: December 1^st 2020

After a strong increase in spot power prices in South East Europe (SEE) last week, several bearish factors, such as hydropower, consumption and wind power generation, are foreseen until the end of next week, said Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst and hydrology expert at Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).

Last week (48) spot power prices in SEE “came out significantly stronger than forecasted as wind power generation was very low, temperatures decreased below normal, and precipitation was also very low,” noted Ellefsen.

Thus, spot prices in Slovenia averaged 55.71 EUR/MWh last week, while in Hungary they averaged 62.42 EUR/MWh. Meanwhile, spot prices in Romania averaged 62.50 EUR/MWh, and in Bulgaria they averaged 56.34 EUR/MWh.

“A cold start is envisaged for this week, with rising temperatures towards the weekend and a rather mild week 50,” said Ellefsen.

EQ data also shows increasing precipitation in the region in the next two weeks. Therefore, “the very dry trend during November” is expected to end, according to Ellefsen.

The day-ahead baseload power prices on the Hungarian HUPX power exchange for delivery on 2 December amounted to 74.64 EUR/MWh, while on the Serbian SEEPEX power exchange they amounted to 70.67 EUR/MWh, and on the Slovenian BSP power exchange to 74.46 EUR/MWh.

Ellefsen added that the fuel and the associated short-run marginal costs (SRMCs) “were very bullish on the global scene last week for several reasons. Coal strikes, stronger financial markets amid hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine, and a tighter CO₂ balance are the main drivers.”

The month-ahead power prices for January 2021 for the SEE market have started this week with a bullish trend. “They are also slightly on the bullish side for the full week horizon,” added Ellefsen.