OECD NEA and IEA project growth of nuclear energy

The roadmap closely examines current challenges and specifies in detail what governments and other interested parties should do to achieve the goals set in the document. In addition, this is a vision of how to reach a significant peak of nuclear energy, which a plan known as the BLUE Map scenario projects for the next four decades in order to cut energy-related CO2 emissions.

Under the BLUE Map scenario, which is part of the Energy Technology Perspective 2010 (IEA, 2010), greenhouse gas emissions would be cut by 50 percent in the period between 2007 and 2050. Nuclear energy would play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the most cost-effective way. Nuclear capacities could grow to 1,200 GW by 2050, providing about 23 percent of global electricity at that time.

Chart: Global electricity production by source, 2007 (Source: IEA, 2009)

Although the technology for nuclear power generation is already in use, there are many other important challenges to rise to before the BLUE Map scenario targets are met. Potential impediments to a quick growth of nuclear energy in the short or mid run are mostly of the social, industrial and financial nature.

A precondition to a new nuclear programme or further development of an existing one is a clear, long-term government policy. Another requirement is a wide public support for the inclusion of nuclear energy in national energy programmes, which aim to secure energy supply and achieve environmental targets. In addition to striving for support for the policy, governments that support nuclear energy development should implement efficient legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks.

Challenges as to the future growth of nuclear capacities are as follows:

• The need for wider support for government policies in the biggest energy consumer countries, including those that are currently without a nuclear programme;
• Implementing the required legal frameworks and establishing the necessary institutions in the countries where these are not yet present;
• Financing big investments, especially where nuclear facilities are being constructed by the private sector;
• Developing the required industrial facilities and qualified human resources to support sustainable growth in the field of nuclear energy;
•  Increasing the supply of nuclear fuel, which will correspond with the increase in nuclear facilities, and ensuring all nuclear energy consumers secure fuel supply.

Many countries are considering growth of nuclear capacities in the next decade and later on. The next few years will show whether these plans can be carried out in time. This is why the Energy Technology Roadmap is a living document, which can be updated on a regular basis in line with future developments.

Reference: - Energy Technology Roadmap - Nuclear Energy; OECD NEA, IEA; 2010